請問 [施打流感疫苗，至少有七成保護力] 是怎麼算出來的

[big T]

請問 [施打流感疫苗，至少有七成保護力] 是怎麼算出來的

幼兒流感疫苗剩1500劑 接種要快
自由時報自由時報 – 2014年1月16日. .

〔自由時報記者林惠琴／台北報導〕根據台北市衛生局統計，近四週全市流感急診就診人數從一千五百六十二人增至兩千六百六十五人，暴增一千多人，而幼兒流感疫苗各縣市陸續傳出缺貨，北市也只剩一千五百劑，按目前平均每日注射一百至一百五十劑計算，估計最快十天內就會用完。

近4週流感急診人數暴增

衛生局疾病管制處長朱玉如表示，近四週全市流感急診就診率分別為十一．二六％、十一．八六％、十四．六％、十五．一四％，持續呈現成長，也較去年同期的九．一三％、十．五四％、十．五八％、十．○九％大幅上揚。

朱玉如指出，台北市去年全年流感併發症確診一百五十例，其中八十八％未接種流感疫苗，五例死亡；今年一月一日至十四日共確診二十六例，較去年同期的三例高出八倍，原因可能涉及天氣變冷、病毒變強、南來北往的人口變多等。

衛局估計最快10天內用完

朱玉如強調，目前台北市六十五歲以上的成人流感疫苗尚有一萬多劑，而六個月以上三歲以下的幼兒流感疫苗則只剩一千五百劑，已緊急將疫苗調撥至市立聯合醫院與十二區健康服務中心院外門診部，但以目前接種速度，估計最快十天內用完，有需求的民眾可儘快洽詢相關單位。

幼兒施打 至少7成保護力

台北市立聯合醫院仁愛院區小兒科主治醫師陳大成表示，雖然幼兒施打流感疫苗，保護力仍無法達百分百，但至少有七成，萬一原本該打兩劑的幼兒只打一劑，保護力只怕剩下四成，更不用說完全沒打。不過家長只要避免帶小孩前往公共場所，並且養成戴口罩、勤洗手的習慣，仍可有效防止病菌入侵。

[kwojohn]

推

[李誠民]

• A pregnant nurse was recently fired from her position in Pennsylvania after refusing the flu shot for fear it might harm her unborn baby
• It is unknown whether the flu vaccine can cause fetal harm or affect your reproduction capacity, which is why the drug insert states that the influenza vaccine should only be given to a pregnant woman if it’s “clearly needed”
• Three recent European studies challenge the claim that the influenza vaccine will protect you against influenza
• One study found that overall vaccine effectiveness against influenza A/H3N2 in the first months of the season was 38 percent. After mid-February, effectiveness dropped to -1 percent
• An earlier meta-analysis concluded that there’s “no credible evidence” that vaccinating health care workers working with the elderly affects influenza complications in their patients
• 懷孕護士最近從她在賓夕法尼亞州陣地發射拒絕接種流感疫苗，生怕它會傷害她未出生的嬰兒後，
它是未知的流感疫苗是否會傷害胎兒或影響你的繁殖能力，這就是為什麼藥物插入指出，流感疫苗只應給予孕婦如果它“顯然需要”
最近三個歐洲研究挑戰聲稱流感疫苗會保護你抵抗流感
一項研究發現，抗流感A/H3N2在本賽季的首個月的整體疫苗的有效性為38％。二月中旬後，效果下降至-1％的
較早的薈萃分析得出的結論是“沒有可信的證據”表明接種的醫護人員與老人的工作會影響流感並發症的病人
• Most recently, a 29-year old pregnant nurse at a hospital was fired from her position with Horizons Healthcare Services in Pennsylvania after refusing the flu shot. She recently told CNN:1, 2-------y SYDNEY LUPKIN Jan uary 3, 2013 3:03 PM
• Healthy Texas Mom Dies of Flu at 29, Leaves Three Kids ABC News
• Rush For Flu Vaccine Continues Across North Texas CBS Dallas Fort Worth (RSS)
• Fear Of Flu Leads Many To Get Vaccinated As Hospitalizations, Deaths Rise CBS Dallas Fort Worth (RSS)
• Flu 101: To Fight the Flu, Prepare for It U.S.News & World Report LP
Two Flu Deaths Reported In Denton County, Doctors Encourage Flu Shots CBS Dallas Fort Worth (RSS)
Flu Widespread, Leading a Range of Winter’s Ills
By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr. and KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
Published: January 9, 2013 566 Comments
• Facebook
• Twitter
During One of the Worst Flu Seasons, is the Flu Vaccine the Answer?
January 22, 2013 | 315,013 views---Mercola com.

[李誠民]

台灣跟美國一樣,醫護人員是免費施打流感疫苗,不同的是美國緯度更北,冬天比台灣早1-3月,所以有關流感疫苗調查與研究報告,多是在January(一月)發表,台灣大約是Jan.(一月)才是流感高峰,到緊急採購,再施打,都是約三月後才有抗體, 所以我對施壓(?!)緊急採購的消息來源(所謂專家學者?!); 都是持懷疑態度!!只是施壓衛福部或疾管署(邱文達或張忠義醫師!!!); 派系鬥爭而已!!!.............鬼扯!!!

[李誠民]

傳郵件，業已收悉。有關您詢問「流感疫苗保護力如何計算」一事，本部說明如下：
疫苗的保護效果需視當年使用的疫苗株是否與實際流行的病毒株型相符，以及不同年齡或身體狀況而異。根據2003年Vaccine期刊上一篇整合性文獻報告，流感疫苗保護力平均約為30－80％。另外本部疾病管制署最新發布在國際期刊PLOS ONE有關我國流感疫情監測研究結果，2011－2012年流感季在B型流感疫苗株不吻合的狀況，流感疫苗對A型流感的保護力依然有54％（95％C.I.：3％－78％）；歐洲監測研究指出2011－2012年流感季的流感疫苗的保護力達43％－54％；美國疾病管制中心近期公布的資訊指出流感疫苗的保護力達60％（95％C.I.：50％－70％）。-----H7N9是A-virusFlue H3N2是B-virus Flue--事發生在2010年沙烏地阿拉伯朝聖時的流行的流感
此外，歷年來政府公費流感疫苗皆在流感季前完成採購、驗收和鋪貨，及開始接種作業，以確保計畫對象能在第一時間接種流感疫苗，儘早提高本身和群體免疫力。
如果您需要其他流感疫苗相關訊息，歡迎至本部疾病管制署全球資訊網http://www.cdc.gov.tw/專業版/傳染病介紹/第四類法定傳染病/流感併發症 ... 報及關懷專線1922（0800-001922）洽詢。
感謝您的來信，祝您健康、快樂!
衛生福利部 敬復

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美國是關注在2009年的H1N1

這期BMJ有文章報導中國大陸的H7N9的禽流感流行問題,還未證實是人傳人的流感

[min]

用猜的啦！

[sjs]

「三分天注定，七分靠打拚」
不用算，用唱的就可以告訴你。

[空空空]

• An earlier meta-analysis concluded that there’s “no credible evidence” that vaccinating health care workers working with the elderly affects influenza complications in their patients

較早的薈萃分析得出的結論是“沒有可信的證據”表明接種的醫護人員與老人的工作會影響流感並發症的病人

無明顯可信的證據顯示，對照顧老人的醫護人員施打流感疫苗，可以降低受照顧病人的流感併發症

[poki]

傳郵件，業已收悉。有關您詢問「流感疫苗保護力如何計算」一事，本部說明如下：
疫苗的保護效果需視當年使用的疫苗株是否與實際流行的病毒株型相符，以及不同年齡或身體狀況而異。根據2003年Vaccine期刊上一篇整合性文獻報告，流感疫苗保護力平均約為30－80％。另外本部.................

人家是問"流感疫苗保護力如何計算?"
答非所問, 問這些人真會吐血, 不如自己查

How are benefits of vaccination measured?

Public health researchers measure how well flu vaccines work through different kinds of studies. “Randomized studies,” in which people are randomly assigned to receive either vaccine or placebo (i.e., salt water solution), and then followed to see how many in each group get the flu, are the “gold standard” (best method) for determining how well a vaccine works. The effects of vaccination measured in these studies is called “efficacy.”

“Observational studies” are studies in which subjects who choose to be vaccinated are compared to those who chose not to be vaccinated. This means that vaccination of study subjects is not randomized. The measurement of vaccine effects in an observational study is referred to as “effectiveness.” Randomized studies are expensive and are not conducted after a recommendation for vaccination has been issued, as withholding vaccine from people recommended for vaccination would place them at risk for infection, illness and possibly serious complications. For that reason, most U.S. studies conducted to determine the benefits of flu vaccination in the elderly are observational studies.

「Vaccine efficacy」指的是疫苗注射後降低的疾病發生機率對應未注射疫苗組的疾病發生率之比值，以VE=(IU-IV)/IU*100%公式表示，其中IU是未接種組的患病率，IV是接種組的患病率。「Vaccine effectiveness」是在例行疫苗使用時測量疫苗直接保護力（vaccine induced）及非直接保護力（population related）。

[李誠民]

謝謝指正!!與知識!!

WHO reports spike in number of avian flu cases
BMJ 2014; 348 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.g431 (Published 23 January 2014)
Cite this as: BMJ 2014;348:g431

Probable person to person transmission of novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in Eastern China, 2013: epidemiological investigation
BMJ 2013; 347 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.f4752 (Published 6 August 2013)
Cite this as: BMJ 2013;347:f4752

N Engl J Med. 2013 May 16;368(20):1888-97. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1304459. Epub 2013 Apr 11.
Human infection with a novel avian-origin influenza A (H7N9) virus.
....---Novel reassortant H7N9 viruses were associated with severe and fatal respiratory disease in three patients. (Funded by the National Basic Research Program of China and others.)

我所知道的去年流感疫苗是四價型--H1N1, H3N2, H7N9與一株Bvirus Flue; 今年是哪型(仍是四價型?!),對產生抗體是否與一價相同?..........

[李誠民]

謝謝指正!!與知識!!

WHO reports spike in number of avian flu cases
BMJ 2014; 348 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.g431 (Published 23 January 2014)
Cite this as: BMJ 2014;348:g431

Probable person to person transmission of novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in Eastern China, 2013: epidemiological investigation
BMJ 2013; 347 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.f4752 (Published 6 August 2013)
Cite this as: BMJ 2013;347:f4752

N Engl J Med. 2013 May 16;368(20):1888-97. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1304459. Epub 2013 Apr 11.
Human infection with a novel avian-origin influenza A (H7N9) virus.
....---Novel reassortant H7N9 viruses were associated with severe and fatal respiratory disease in three patients. (Funded by the National Basic Research Program of China and others.)

我所知道的去年流感疫苗是四價型--H1N1, H3N2, H7N9與一株Bvirus Flue; 今年是哪型(仍是四價型?!),對產生抗體是否與一價相同?..........

[poki]

謝謝指正!!與知識!!
..........[/color]

我是在說衛生福利部"答非所問", "令人吐血"

我不是"指正"你, 請不要誤會

[tibet]

• A pregnant nurse was recently fired from her position in Pennsylvania after refusing the flu shot for fear it might harm her unborn baby
• It is unknown whether the flu vaccine can cause fetal harm or affect your reproduction capacity, which is why the drug insert states that the influenza vaccine should only be given to a pregnant woman if it’s “clearly needed”
• Three recent European studies challenge the claim that the influenza vaccine will protect you against influenza
• One study found that overall vaccine effectiveness against influenza A/H3N2 in the first months of the season was 38 percent. After mid-February, effectiveness dropped to -1 percent
• An earlier meta-analysis concluded that there’s “no credible evidence” that vaccinating health care workers working with the elderly affects influenza complications in their patients
• 懷孕護士最近從她在賓夕法尼亞州陣地發射拒絕接種流感疫苗，生怕它會傷害她未出生的嬰兒後，
它是未知的流感疫苗是否會傷害胎兒或影響你的繁殖能力，這就是為什麼藥物插入指出，流感疫苗只應給予孕婦如果它“顯然需要”
最近三個歐洲研究挑戰聲稱流感疫苗會保護你抵抗流感
一項研究發現，抗流感A/H3N2在本賽季的首個月的整體疫苗的有效性為38％。二月中旬後，效果下降至-1％的
較早的薈萃分析得出的結論是“沒有可信的證據”表明接種的醫護人員與老人的工作會影響流感並發症的病人
• Most recently, a 29-year old pregnant nurse at a hospital was fired from her position with Horizons Healthcare Services in Pennsylvania after refusing the flu shot. She recently told CNN:1, 2-------y SYDNEY LUPKIN Jan uary 3, 2013 3:03 PM
• Healthy Texas Mom Dies of Flu at 29, Leaves Three Kids ABC News
• Rush For Flu Vaccine Continues Across North Texas CBS Dallas Fort Worth (RSS)
• Fear Of Flu Leads Many To Get Vaccinated As Hospitalizations, Deaths Rise CBS Dallas Fort Worth (RSS)
• Flu 101: To Fight the Flu, Prepare for It U.S.News & World Report LP
Two Flu Deaths Reported In Denton County, Doctors Encourage Flu Shots CBS Dallas Fort Worth (RSS)
Flu Widespread, Leading a Range of Winter’s Ills
By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr. and KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
Published: January 9, 2013 566 Comments
• Facebook
• Twitter
During One of the Worst Flu Seasons, is the Flu Vaccine the Answer?
January 22, 2013 | 315,013 views---Mercola com.

李大,建議您可以省略中文翻譯, 因為中文比英文還難懂

[hjh]

「三分天注定，七分靠打拚」
不用算，用唱的就可以告訴你。

(爽) (爽)
愛拼疫苗才會贏